How Presidential Elections Impact Home Sellers

As the upcoming Presidential election draws closer, you might be wondering how it will affect the housing market, particularly if you’re considering selling your home. It’s natural to feel some uncertainty during an election year, but understanding how previous elections have influenced the market can help you make an informed decision.

The good news is that, historically, Presidential elections have only had a small, temporary impact on the housing market. So, if you’re planning to sell your home, there’s no need to hit pause on your plans.

Home Sales During Election Years

In the lead-up to a Presidential election, there’s often a slight slowdown in home sales. Some buyers may adopt a wait-and-see approach, delaying their decisions until after the election. However, this slowdown is typically minor and temporary. 

Historically, home sales bounced right back and continued to rise the following year.

Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that in 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased in the year following the election. This suggests that any dip in sales before the election is likely to be short-lived, with the market rebounding soon after.

Home Prices Are Resilient

Another common concern for sellers is whether home prices will drop during an election year. The data shows that home prices generally continue their upward trend, regardless of the election cycle.  As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist notes:

“An election year doesn’t alter the price trend that is already happening in the market.”

The latest data from NAR supports this, showing that home prices increased in 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections. The only exception was during the 2008 housing market crash, a unique and severe economic event. Today’s market is much more stable, and while prices may moderate, a significant drop is unlikely.

What About Mortgage Rates?

Mortgage rates, which directly affect buyers' purchasing power, have historically decreased in the months leading up to a Presidential election. Freddie Mac data indicates that in 8 of the last 11 Presidential election years, mortgage rates dropped from July to November. This trend is continuing in 2024, with experts forecasting a slight easing of rates throughout the rest of the year (see chart below):

For sellers, lower mortgage rates are beneficial because they can increase the pool of potential buyers, making your home more attractive in the market.

Why Sellers Shouldn’t Worry

The bottom line for sellers is that Presidential elections, while significant, do not drastically alter the housing market. Historical data shows that any impact on home sales, prices, and mortgage rates is minimal and temporary. So, there’s no need to delay your plans if you’re ready to sell. The housing market remains strong and resilient, even during election years.

At Florostone Realty, we’re here to help you navigate the market during this election cycle. Whether you’re selling your home or just exploring your options, let’s connect to ensure you make the best decision for your situation.